This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only...

In recent years, support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a...

This paper examines, for the first time, the performance of machine learning models in realised volatility forecasting using big data sets such as LOBSTER limit order books and news stories from Dow Jones News Wires for 28 NASDAQ stocks over a sample period of July 27, 2007, to November 18,...

This paper analyzes the performance of temporal fusion transformers in forecasting realized volatilities of stocks listed in the S&P 500 in volatile periods by comparing the predictions with those of state-of-the-art machine learning methods as well as GARCH models. The models are trained on...

In recent years, support vector regressions (SVRs), a novel artificial neural network (ANN) technique, has been successfully used as a nonparametric tool for regression estimation and forecasting time series data. In this thesis, we deal with the application of SVRs in financial markets...

This paper proposes a novel algorithm called Persistent Homology for Realized Volatility (PH-RV), which aims to effectively incorporate persistent homology (PH) into neural network models to increase their forecast accuracy in predicting realized volatility (RV). This paper also proposes a novel...

We develop FinText, a novel, state-of-the-art, financial word embedding from Dow Jones Newswires Text News Feed Database. Incorporating this word embedding in a machine learning model produces a substantial increase in volatility forecasting performance on days with volatility jumps for 23...

In recent years support vector regression (SVR), a novel neural network (NN) technique, has been successfully used for financial forecasting. This paper deals with the application of SVR in volatility forecasting. Based on a recurrent SVR, a GARCH method is proposed and is compared with a moving...

Textual analysis of news articles is increasingly important in predicting stock prices. Previous research has intensively utilized the textual analysis of news and other firm-related documents in volatility prediction models. It has been demonstrated that the news may be related to abnormal...

Purpose – We use a large and rich data set consisting of over 123,000 single-family houses sold in Switzerland between 2005 and 2017 to investigate the accuracy and volatility of different methods for estimating and updating hedonic valuation models.Design/methodology/approach – We apply six...