The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance istreated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on thesimultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochasticprocesses of the mean part...

The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance istreated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on thesimultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochasticprocesses of the mean part...

Structural time series models are formulated in terms of components, such as trends, seasonals and cycles, that have a direct interpretation. As well as providing a framework for time series decomposition by signal extraction, they can be used for forecasting and for ‘nowcasting’. The...

This paper is the first attempt to assess the impact of official FOREX interventions of the three major central banks in terms of the dynamics of the currency components of the major exchange rates (EUR/USD and YEN/USD) over the period 1989-2003. We identify the currency components of the mean...

In this paper we study the short term price behavior of December 2008 future prices for EU emissionallowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics of this price showing that a standard ARMA-GARCHframework is not adequate and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to the occurrence...

This paper employs an augmented version of the UECCC GARCH specificationproposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2010) which allows for lagged in-mean effects,level effects as well as asymmetries in the conditional variances. In this unifiedframework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal...

This paper employs the unrestricted extended constant conditional correlationGARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2008) to examine theintertemporal relationship between the uncertainties of in°ation and output growthin the US. We find that inflation uncertainty effects output...

An asymmetric multivariate generalization of the recently proposed class of normal mixture GARCH models is developed. Issues of parametrization and estimation are discussed. Conditions for covariance stationarity and the existence of the fourth moment are derived, and expressions for the dynamic...

We develop a multivariate generalization of the Markov-switching GARCH model introduced by Haas, Mittnik, and Paolella (2004b) and derive its fourth-moment structure. An application to international stock markets illustrates the relevance of accounting for volatility regimes from both a...

The wavelet transform is used to identify a biannual and an annual seasonality in the Phelix Day Peak and to separate the long-term trend from its short-term motion. The short-term/long-term model for commodity prices of Schwartz & Smith (2000) is applied but generalised to account for weekly...