component in nominal bond yields. Surprisingly, prior literature finds little predictive power of oil price changes on bond … shocks predict negative real bond risk premium and positive inflation risk premium. Since these two effects offset each other …, we observe insignificant effect on the bond risk premium. A two-sector New Keynesian model shows theoretically that real …

Gaussian affine term structure models attribute time‐varying bond risk premia to changing risk prices driven by the … model with recursive preferences. Our model is affine and has analytical bond prices making it empirically tractable. We use … particle Markov chain Monte Carlo to estimate the model, and find that time variation in bond term premia is predominantly …

a consol then agents' portfolios exhibit two-fund separation. However, if agents can trade only a one-period bond, this … that destroy the optimality of two-fund separation in economies with a one-period bond and result in different equilibrium …

We examine time-varying explanatory power of realized moments on subsequent bond futures excess returns using more than … 12 years of high-frequency data from U.S. and German sovereign bond markets. We detect realized volatility and realized … traditional bond return predictors such as term or default spreads. Most importantly, we reveal the bond excess return …

This paper reexamines the issue of unspanned stochastic volatility (USV) in bond markets and the puzzle of poor … relative pricing between bonds and bond options. I make a distinction between the "weak USV" and the "strong USV" scenarios …-Gaussian model (a non-USV model) estimated without bond options data can capture much of the movement in bond option prices. Dropping …