This paper presents a GARCH type volatility model with a time-varying unconditional volatility which is a function of macroeconomic information. It is an extension of the SPLINE GARCH model proposed by Engle and Rangel (2005). The advantage of the model proposed in this paper is that the...

A well developed literature exists in relation to modeling and forecasting asset return volatility. Much of this relate to the development of time series models of volatility. This paper proposes an alternative method for forecasting volatility that does not involve such a model. Under this...

There is a long history of research into the impact of trading activity and information on financial market volatility. Based on 10 years of unique data on news items relating to gold and crude oil broadcast over the Reuters network, this study has two objectives. It investigates the impact of...

The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management with large dimensional multivariate problems are increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of...

Forecasts of asset return volatility are necessary for many financial applications, including portfolio allocation. Traditionally, the parameters of econometric models used to generate volatility forecasts are estimated in a statistical setting and subsequently used in an economic setting such...

The importance of covariance modelling has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management and large dimensional multivariate problems are increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating whether simpler...