This paper presents instrumental variables estimates of the effects of GDP per capita volatility on the size of government. We show that for a panel of 157 countries spanning more than half a century rainfall volatility has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita volatility in countries...

This paper presents instrumental variables estimates of the effects of GDP per capita volatility on the size of government. We show that for a panel of 157 countries spanning more than half a century, rainfall volatility has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita volatility in countries...

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth. Based on 5‐year nonoverlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980 to 2010, the paper finds that terms of trade volatility has significant...

Political polarization combined with political turnover have been shown to amplify economic fluctuations (Azzimonti and Talbert, 2014). This paper analyzes a fiscal policy institution capable of reducing the volatility caused by these political frictions. We introduce the distinction between...

In recent times, Nigeria has faced headwinds that have posed serious fiscal and macroeconomic risks. Subdued oil prices since mid-2014 was the latest of the recurring episodes of boom and bust cycles, similar to the oil collapse of 1980 – 1986, and the sharp decline recorded in 2009 when oil...

By computing a volatility index (CVX) from cryptocurrency option prices, we analyze this market's expectation of future volatility. Our method addresses the challenging liquidity environment of this young asset class and allows us to extract stable market implied volatilities. Two alternative...

We investigated the behaviour of returns of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index using asymmetrical exponential-GARCH(1,1) and GJR-GARCH(1,1) incorporating the market reactions to news. We noted the returns distribution is skewed and have fat-tails with respect to the normal...

Modeling volatility during a financial crisis where massive shocks are generated presents an ideal environment for investigating the dynamics of volatility during periods of extreme fluctuations for comparison with volatility during more tranquil periods. The objective of this paper is to study...

The main objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that emerging markets are more sensitive to negative shocks than positive ones, and also that developed ones do not exhibit this same pattern. Using the family of ARCH models, the conditional variances of exchange rates in Brazil, Mexico...

In this study, volatility of sock return behavior through a regime-Switching Asymmetric Power GARCH Model (RS-APGARCH) analyses in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Turkey, during the period of 1988-2006 and show that ISE's asymmetric response and the intensity of this response to good and/or bad...