Using equations that arise in quantum mechanics, this paper describes a way to more accurately and efficiently represent non-Gaussian return distributions than the standard method of invoking skewness and kurtosis. Then, it provides a new single intuitive number, defined here as the “crash...

This paper derives two new improved risk metrics LAPVaR and LAPSF. Traditional VaRDeltaNormal valuation exaggerates market and liquidity risks to the point it could be larger than the actual portfolio value. Put VaR – PVaR – as well as Put Shortfall – PSF – uses option theory to solve...

We study the attitude of decision makers to skewed noise. For a binary lottery that yields the better outcome with probability p, we identify noise around p, with a compound lottery that induces a distribution over the exact value of the probability and has an average value p. We propose and...

Experimental evidence suggests that individuals who face an asymmetric distribution over the likelihood of a specific event might actually prefer not to know the exact value of this probability. We address these findings by studying a decision maker who has recursive, non-expected utility...

We examine the impact of the global economic activity, oil supply, oil-specific consumption demand, and oil inventory demand shocks on the expected aggregate skewness of the United States (US) economy, obtained based on a data-rich environment involving 211 macroeconomic and financial variables...

This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when novel events that are each somewhat unique cause unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in the process driving outcomes. Expectations concordance measures the degree to which...

We study a class of endowment economies with long-run risks in which agents have generalized recursive smooth ambiguity preferences and heterogeneous beliefs. The expected growth rate of aggregate consumption consists of a persistent component. Agents cannot observe the component but learn about...

International tourism is the principal economic activity for Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs). There is a strongly predictable component of international tourism, specifically the government revenue received from taxes on international tourists, but it is difficult to predict the number of...

The use of GARCH models with stable Paretian innovations in financial modeling has been recently suggested in the literature. This class of processes is attractive because it allows for conditional skewness and leptokurtosis of financial returns without ruling out normality. This contribution...