Using a new dataset of bid and offer quotes for credit default swaps, we investigate the relationship between theoretical determinants of default risk and actual market premia using linear regression. These theoretical determinants are firm leverage, volatility and the riskless interest rate. We...

This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting forward-looking information from option prices. We consider volatility, skewness, kurtosis, and density forecasting. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object which is a twice differentiable function of the future realization...

We use intraday data to compute weekly realized variance, skewness, and kurtosis for equity returns and study the realized moments' time-series and cross-sectional properties. We investigate if this week's realized moments are informative for the cross-section of next week's stock returns. We...

State-of-the-art stochastic volatility models generate a 'volatility smirk' that explains why out-of-the-money index puts have high prices relative to the Black-Scholes benchmark. These models also adequately explain how the volatility smirk moves up and down in response to changes in risk....

We analyze the relation between expected option returns and the volatility of the underlying securities. The expected return from holding a call (put) option is a decreasing (increasing) function of the volatility of the underlying. These predictions are strongly supported by the data. In the...

We nest multiple volatility components, fat tails and a U-shaped pricing kernel in a single option model and compare their contribution to describing returns and option data. All three features lead to statistically significant model improvements. A U-shaped pricing kernel is economically most...

This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object that is a twice differentiable function of...

Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added. To do so we...