We measure uncertainty surrounding the central bank's future policy rates using implied volatility computed from interest rate option prices and realized volatility computed from intraday prices of interest rate futures. Both volatility measures show that uncertainty decreased following the most...

This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting forward-looking information from option prices. We consider volatility, skewness, kurtosis, and density forecasting. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object which is a twice differentiable function of the future realization...

This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object that is a twice differentiable function of...

We examine the empirical performance of a spline-based, local volatility surface for the period 2000–2005. Our findings indicate that the proposed model outperforms the best-performing implied volatility–based model reported in the current literature for European-style S&P 500 Index options....