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three US financial assets, we compare the realized MEGARCH models with existing multivariate GARCH class models. The …The paper develops a new realized matrix-exponential GARCH (MEGARCH) model, which uses the information of returns and … realized measure of co-volatility matrix simultaneously. The paper also considers an alternative multivariate asymmetric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011794277
. The model is estimated with sequential Monte Carlo methods that include a particle learning filter and a Rao …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316727
. A state-dependent volatility spillover GARCH hedging strategy is developed to capture the regime switching global equity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011883272
This paper illustrates how to handle a sequence of extreme observations-such as those recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic-when estimating a Vector Autoregression, which is the most popular time-series model in macroeconomics. Our results show that the ad-hoc strategy of dropping these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012422123
robust and efficient relative to alternative Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes employed in such contexts. In addition it … model, namely SV-GARCH which attempts to bridge the gap between GARCH and stochastic volatility specifications. In nesting … the standard GARCH model as a special case, it has the attractive feature of inheriting the same unconditional properties …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014185810
We document five novel empirical findings on the well-known potential ordering drawback associated with the time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility developed by Cogley and Sargent (2005) and Primiceri (2005), CSP-SV. First, the ordering does not affect point...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014048674
the volatility level. We apply a full Bayesian inference approach, which relies upon Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for …This work deals with multivariate stochastic volatility models, which account for a time-varying variance … stochastic representations of the Wishart process and propose Markov-Switching Wishart processes to capture different regimes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014220749
DGP is a nonlinear state space model (SSM). We estimate the SSM using Bayesian tools grounded in a Rao …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012946951
In this paper, we provide evidence that fat tails and stochastic volatility can be important in improving in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting performance. Specifically, we construct a VAR model where the orthogonalised shocks feature Student's t distribution and time-varying variance. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021982
Adding multivariate stochastic volatility of a flexible form to large Vector Autoregressions (VARs) involving over a … paper, we develop composite likelihood methods for large VARs with multivariate stochastic volatility. These involve … multivariate stochastic volatility in a flexible and realistic manner and they forecast comparably. In very high dimensional VARs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012917923