In this paper, a method is introduced for approximating the likelihood for the unknown parameters of a state space model. The approximation converges to the true likelihood as the simulation size goes to infinity. In addition, the approximating likelihood is continuous as a function of the...

In this paper we provide a unified methodology for conducting likelihood-based inference on the unknown parameters of a general class of discrete-time stochastic volatility (SV) models, characterized by both a leverage effect and jumps in returns. Given the nonlinear/non-Gaussian state-space...

We perform a comprehensive Monte Carlo comparison between nine procedures available in the literature to detect jumps in financial assets proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006), Andersen et al. (2007), Lee and Mykland (2008), A¨ıt-Sahalia and Jacod (2008), Jiang and Oomen (2008),...

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...

The study investigates the stock price movement of quoted Nigerian oil and gas firms using the Markovian model. Specifically, the study estimates the change in likelihoods and steady-state distribution of the share prices of the firms to determine the average time spent by the share price to...

Volatility is a central tenet of financial markets, impacting a wide range of investors’ daily activities, including risk management, portfolio construction and option pricing. To improve their investment decisions, investors are spending considerable time and effort on finding new ways to...

According to IFRS 9, an Entity shall assess - by performing a quantitative assessment - the relevance of the modification of the time value of money element, i.e. the modification of the interest that can be observed, e.g. in all the instruments whose underlying interest rate tenors are...

This study examines the calendar effects in 55 Stock market exchange indices around the globe. The effects which are examined are the turn-of-the-Month effect, day-of-the-Week effect, Month-of the-Year effect and semi-Month effect. The methodology followed is the test hypothesis with bootstrap...

In this paper, we show that the availability of multiple price series for the same asset can be exploited to estimate its integrated variance. We use a vector error correction model for those prices and its common trend representation to estimate the efficient price of the asset. Because the...

We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag...