The first ever explicit formulation of the concept of the option's probability density functions has been introduced in our publications “Breakthrough in Understanding Derivatives and Option Based Hedging - Marginal and Joint Probability Density Functions of Vanilla Options - True...

The first ever explicit formulation of the concept of an option's probability density functions has been introduced in our publications “Breakthrough in Understanding Derivatives and Option Based Hedging - Marginal and Joint Probability Density Functions of Vanilla Options - True Value-at-Risk...

• It is not widely emphasized in the literature that derivatives are complex random quantities which should, by custom, be characterized by their probability density functions. • It is understood that Black-Scholes style of derivatives pricing represents an expected value, i.e. the...

In this paper we provide an outline of interest rate swaptions and how to price swaptions with different payoff or settlement types. Firstly we review the different settlement styles commonplace in financial markets. Secondly we review the swaption pricing formulae corresponding to each...

In this paper we outline the European interest rate swaption pricing formula from first principles using the Martingale Representation Theorem and the annuity measure. This leads to an expression that allows us to apply the generalized Black-Scholes result. We show that a swaption pricing...

Benoît Mandelbrot, the father of Fractal Geometry, developed a multifractal model for describing price changes. Despite the commonly used models, such as the Brownian motion, the Mutifractal Model of Asset Return (MMAR) takes into account scale-consistency, long-range dependence and heavy...

Nowadays, volatility of crude oil price is one of the important developments which are followed by experts with care. Recently increasing of crude oil price is very important for Turkey which 40% of energy consumption consists of oil and 90% of this amount is imported. The aim of the study is...

We introduce a new framework for understanding portfolio diversification that provides a coherent basis for comparing methodologies and offers a new approach to portfolio construction. The primary argument is that measures of diversification based only on a covariance matrix are ambiguous...

This study aims to overcome the problem of dimensionality, accurate estimation, and forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) uncertainty intervals in high frequency data. A Bayesian bootstrapping and backtest density forecasts, which are based on a weighted threshold and...

We propose a straightforward approach to obtain a more efficient estimate of the integrated variance of an asset through a cross-sectional combination with a futures contract written on it. Our method constructs a variance-preserving series with reduced noise size as a linear combination of the...