Showing 1 - 10 of 14
Consensus professional forecasts of stock returns are three times more volatile than those of non-professionals and econometricians. This "excess" volatility in professional forecasts is not due to noise. Rather, professional forecasts respond immediately, strongly, and countercyclically to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349206
"We consider various MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regression models to predict volatility. The models differ in the specification of regressors (squared returns, absolute returns, realized volatility, realized power, and return ranges), in the use of daily or intra-daily (5-minute) data, and in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002482290
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010416812
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003298564
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003509012
Multi-period-ahead forecasts of returns' variance are used in most areas of applied finance where long horizon measures of risk are necessary. Yet, the major focus in the variance forecasting literature has been on one-period-ahead forecasts. In this paper, we compare several approaches of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011976983
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704952
We consider various MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regression models to predict volatility. The models differ in the specification of regressors (squared returns, absolute returns, realized volatility, realized power, and return ranges), in the use of daily or intra-daily (5-minute) data, and in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755731
We propose a new approach to predictive density modeling that allows for MIDAS effects in both the first and second moments of the outcome. Specifically, our modeling approach allows for MIDAS stochastic volatility dynamics, generalizing a large literature focusing on MIDAS effects in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013033107
The dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing. Chapter I is motivated by the recent surge in institutional investment in commodity futures markets. The chapter studies how commodity risk is priced in stock and futures markets and asks whether this risk premium is time-varying with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010238887