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It is shown how to construct an arbitrage-free short rate model under uncertainty about the drift and the volatility. The uncertainty is represented by a set of priors, which naturally leads to a G-Brownian motion. Within this framework, it is shown how to characterize the whole term structure...
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macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the … estimating risk premia and highlights the proliferation of risk pricing factors that result in a wide range of different asset …-price-based expectation measures. It then describes a key methodological innovation to evaluate the empirical plausibility of risk premium …
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We show how to set up a forward rate model in the presence of volatility uncertainty by using the theory of G … equations and two market prices of risk, respectively, uncertainty. Furthermore, we examine the connection to short rate models …
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Sudden and uncertain events often cause cross-contagion of risk among various sectors of the macroeconomy. This paper … uncertainty risk on macroeconomics. Then, the high-dimensional DSGE model (DSGE-SV-t) is developed to examine the impact of … uncertainty risk on the transmission mechanism among macroeconomic sectors. The empirical research found that uncertainty risk …
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