This paper investigates international index return predictability using option-implied information. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Foster-Hart risk (FH), and higher-order moments for horizons ranging from 1 to 250 days. Our results from...

This paper studies crude oil market integration and spillovers between Brent and WTI oil indexes over the 2006-2019 period. In addition to prices, we estimate time series of model-free option-implied moments to capture forward-looking market views and anticipations of different risk categories....

Ross (2015) shows that options data can reveal the market's true expectations. Adapting this approach to index options (S&P, FTSE, CAC, SMI and DAX), we separate option-implied volatility into Ross-recovered true expected volatility and a risk preference factor. We investigate whether these...

This paper investigates international index return predictability using daily-updated option-implied information in predictive regressions and out-of-sample forecasts. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Generalized Riskiness (GR), and higher-order...