The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

Purpose – Aims to investigate the accuracy of parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric methods in predicting the one‐day‐ahead value‐at‐risk (VaR) measure in three types of markets (stock exchanges, commodities, and exchange rates), both for long and short trading positions....

Purpose – Aims to investigate the accuracy of parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric methods in predicting the one-day-ahead value-at-risk (VaR) measure in three types of markets (stock exchanges, commodities, and exchange rates), both for long and short trading positions....

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the performance of three alternative value‐at‐risk (VaR) models to provide suitable estimates for measuring and forecasting market risk. The data sample consists of five international developed and emerging stock market indices over the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the performance of three alternative value-at-risk (VaR) models to provide suitable estimates for measuring and forecasting market risk. The data sample consists of five international developed and emerging stock market indices over the time...