There has been a widespread perception in the past few years that long-term asset prices are generally high because monetary authorities have effectively kept long-term interest rates, which the market uses to discount cash flows, low. This perception is not accurate. Long-term interest rates...

Estimates are made, from time series data on real gross domestic products, of the standard deviations of returns in markets for perpetual claims on countries' incomes. The results indicate that the variability of returns is of a magnitude comparable to that of returns in stock markets. Evidence...

Er hat die Technologieblase vorhergesagt und vor der Immobilienblase warnte er ebenfalls frühzeitig. Nun analysiert Wirtschafts-Nobelpreisträger Robert Shiller die aktuelle Situation an den Finanzmärkten - und warnt erneut. Mit seiner Theorie des "Irrationalen Überschwangs" zeigt...