We combine two approaches to the pricing kernel, one empirical and one theoretical, which relax the restriction that the objective return distribution and risk neutral distribution share the same volatility and higher order moments. The empirical approach provides estimates for the evolution of...

We estimate investors' sentiment from option and stock prices by anchoring objective beliefs to a neoclassical pricing kernel. Our estimates of sentiment correlate well with other sentiment measures such as the Baker–Wurgler index, the Yale/Shiller crash confidence index and the Duke/CFO...

The conventional discussion of the international financial crisis that erupted in the summer of 2007 is that few professional economists saw it coming, nor anticipated its ferocity in devastating the US and European economies and financial systems, leading to civil unrest and fears of greater...