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We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...
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countries react to oil price shocks come from the source of the shock rather than by the group which the countries belong to …
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We focus on the implications of the shale oil boom for the global supply of oil. We begin with a stylized model with two producers, one facing low production costs and one higher production costs but potentially lower adjustment costs, competing á la Stackelberg. We find that the supply...
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-specific technology shocks and supply shocks that can be imprecisely forecasted by noisy news shock. These shocks explain most of the U …
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cause since the 1970s has been from a global oil demand shock. This paper examines whether the macroeconomic responses to a … global oil demand shock are greater than to oil price shocks caused by other oil market factors. Estimating a four … oil demand shock are greater than from other oil market shocks. Policymakers should not necessarily be concerned with the …
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