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and volatility in a Kenya's fledgling equity market – the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Both the GARCH-in-mean and E … conditional volatility are highly persistent. Our results also indicate that conditional variance is driven more by the past … conditional variance than it is driven by new disturbances. Finally, we find evidence of volatility clustering in the stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044427
growing importance of emerging markets, the literature on the nature of volatility in global markets is typified by … volatility in developed G7 and emerging BRICS markets. Broad market index data and GARCH models over the period 2003 …:01–2020:08 were employed. The study found evidence of volatility persistence, asymmetry, mean reversion and weak evidence of a risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872753
In this paper, we examine size, value, and momentum patterns in the stock returns of four emerging market regions - Latin America, EMEA, Asia, and BRIC. We document a strong and highly significant value effect, and a strong but less significant momentum effect. Substantial value and momentum...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034756
Using a news-based gauge of geopolitical risk, we study its role for asset pricing in global emerging markets. We find that changes in risk positively predict future stock returns. The countries with the highest increase in geopolitical uncertainty outperform their counterparts with the lowest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352071
Previous research indicates that performance and volatility of small and regional stock markets can be influenced by … bubble, and a great recession which followed after. Significant volatility of SASE was noted in 2007 while later periods … suggest lesser volatility after a significant drop in index value in mid 2007. The data was analyzed in a side by side …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001008
This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since .the early 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226778
This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. The former is exploited by trend-following models, while the latter by contrarian models. In total, the performance of 2580 widely used models is analyzed. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135708
We study how the excess market return depends on the time of the day using E-mini S&P 500 futures that are actively traded for almost 24 hours. Strikingly, four hours around European open account for the entire average market return. This period's returns are consistently positive in every year,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834630
Based on data until the mid 2000s, oil price changes were shown to predict international equity index returns with a negative predictive slope. Extending the sample to 2015, we document that this relationship has been reversed over the last ten years and therefore has not been stable over time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935742
Despite momentum's strong historical performance, its returns have large negative skewness and occasionally experiences persistent strings of sharp negative returns, referred as "momentum crashes" in the recent literature. I argue that momentum crashes are due to crowded trades which push prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057742