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This paper proposes a simple chartist-fundamentalist model in which we allow for nonlinear time variation in chartists' extrapolation rate. Estimation of the model using monthly data for the major currencies vis-a-vis the US dollar shows that the model is significant in-sample and that it has...
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We incorporate tail risk in a Bayesian learning framework with information frictions and study how individuals … abstract from any behavioral biases. First, we show that individuals overreact under tail risk, that is, individuals are … excessively optimistic and pessimistic as compared to a Bayesian learning framework without tail risk. Second, uncertainty shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309629
This chapter is structured in three parts. The first part outlines the methodological steps, involving both theoretical and empirical work, for assessing whether an observed allocation of resources across countries is efficient. The second part applies the methodology to the long-run allocation...
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This paper estimates the role of policy and exchange rate uncertainty shocks for EU countries' exports to the world economy. We examine the performance of the four biggest economies, namely Germany, France, Italy and the UK, under policy and exchange rate uncertainty in ex-ports to some of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011691584
This paper estimates the role of policy and exchange rate uncertainty shocks for EU countries' exports to the world economy. We examine the performance of the four biggest economies, namely Germany, France, Italy and the UK, under policy and exchange rate uncertainty in exports to some of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662634