This paper addresses the predictive ability of currency volatility risk premium - the difference between an implied and a realized volatility - over US dollar exchange rates using a time series perspective. The intuition is that, when risk aversion sentiment increases, the market quickly...

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at different time scales for predicting stock returns and explore the channels through which returns are predicted. Using U.S. quarterly and international monthly data, we find that cycles in the price-earning ratio...

This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...

This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...

To understand macroeconomic risks underlying currency carry trades, I propose exploiting rich source of information from analysts’ economic growth forecasts. Specifically, I obtain measures of global growth prospects from the cross-analyst distribution of real GDP growth forecasts. I find that...

In this paper, I examine how financialization affects the term structure of risk premia by using an equilibrium model for commodity futures markets. I define financialization as the entry of cross-asset investors, who are exposed to a commodity risk, into a commodity market. Qualitatively, the...

We model the climate change impact on the risk free term structure in a time deformation model with a persistent component in the stochastic clock. In the spirit of the "rare disaster" representation of climate change we specify a "pure" jump model for consumption. Climate change is claimed to...

We propose a new entropy-based correlation measure (coentropy) to evaluate the performance of international asset pricing models. Coentropy captures the codependence of two random variables beyond normality. We document that the coentropy of international stochastic discount factors (SDFs) can...

I study market-implied real yields extracted from prices of inflation-linked government bonds for 9 developed countries. The liquidity premium is an important component of breakeven inflation rates. Unconditional real yield curves are upward-sloping, providing empirical support for habit models....

We estimate the term structure of the price of variance risk (PVR), which helps distinguish between competing asset-pricing theories. First, we measure the PVR as proportional to the Sharpe ratio of short-term holding returns of delta-neutral index straddles; second, we estimate the PVR in a...