This paper makes the first attempt to estimate the time-varying natural rate jointly with the output gap and trend potential output growth for the world as a whole using a simple unobserved components model broadly following the methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003). We find that...

This study aims to analyze the information effects of US monetary policy on the global financial cycle. By combining external instruments and narrative sign restrictions, we are able to identify monetary policy and central bank information shocks. The results show that a tightening monetary...