Paradoxically, big is not scaleable. But modular is. Energy mega-projects are pursued in order to deliver a big step-up in capacity ahead of demand. Moreover, big is thought to generate economies of scale. However, Instead of making good on these promises, big investments typically fail —...

Do different types of megaprojects have different cost overruns? This apparently simple question is at the heart of research at the University of Oxford aimed at understanding the characteristics of megaprojects, particularly in terms of how they are established, run and concluded.In this study,...

Regression to the mean is nice and reliable. Regression to the tail is reliably scary. We live in the age of regression to the tail. It is only a matter of time until a pandemic worse than COVID-19 will hit us, and climate more extreme than any we have seen. What are the basic principles that...