A large output gap accompanied by stable inflation close to its target calls for further monetary accommodation, but the zero lower bound on interest rates has robbed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the usual tool for its provision. We examine how public statements of FOMC intentions...

This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model for the United States and other G7 countries...

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy on U.S. inflation over the Dec-2019 to June-2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and...

Crises have cleansing effects: Low-quality firms face greater financial shortfalls and invest less than high-quality firms. Public liquidity support preserves the overall production capacity. However, by dampening the cleansing effects, it distorts the quality distribution and reduces the total...

We combine a simple agent-based model of financial markets with a standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model via two straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of stock price bubbles. Even with such a simplistic comprehensive model,...

We document the extent to which workers in AI-exposed occupations can successfully retrain for AI-intensive work. We assemble a new workforce development dataset spanning over 1.6 million job training participation spells from all US Workforce Investment and Opportunity Act programs from...

We develop a novel framework to study the interaction between monetary policy and trade. Our New Keynesian open economy model incorporates international production networks, sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidities, and trade distortions. We decompose the general equilibrium response to trade...

We study the short-run effects of import tariffs on GDP and the trade balance in an open-economy New Keynesian model with intermediate input trade. We find that temporary tariffs cause a recession whenever the import elasticity is below an openness-weighted average of the export elasticity and...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of government spending on the private sector, assessing the existence of crowding-out versus crowding-in effects. Using a panel of 145 countries from 1960 to 2007, the results suggest that government spending produces important crowding-out effects,...

On March 11, 2011 the strongest recorded in Japan earthquake occurred which triggered a powerful tsunami and caused a nuclear accident in the Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Plant Station. The triple 2011 disaster has had immense impacts on people life, health and property, social infrastructure and...