We assess the impact of continued low fertility in China, versus a rebound in fertility due to the relaxation of the one child policy, on demographic and macroeconomic outcomes in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. We use a rich model of human capital investment, public health insurance,...

This working paper makes the case for quickly expanding cash transfer programs across Sub-Saharan Africa to protect children and support economic recovery in 2021. It does so by: (i) describing the economic, poverty and child well-being situation across the region at the end of 2020; (ii)...

This paper investigates how people respond to the distorted incentives of One-Child Policy by examining its impact on twin births in China. The analysis using population census data shows that the One-Child Policy accounts for more than one-third of the increase in twin births since the 1970s....

This paper investigates how people respond to the distorted incentives of One-Child Policy by examining its impact on twin births in China. The analysis using population census data shows that the One-Child Policy accounts for more than one-third of the increase in twin births since the 1970s....

In this study, we consider the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on family formation and dissolution. We use national microdata covering all marriages and divorces in Mexico, an event-study design and a difference-in-difference specification. Our findings indicate that over March through December...

Higher fertility slowly increases the workers-to-retirees ratio over the long run, which can ease the pension financing challenge brought about by population aging. It may or may not increase production per capita. Existing simulation studies all find a positive impact on public finances over...

Most developed countries have family policies, but little is known about their macroeconomic consequences. This paper develops a heterogeneous agent overlapping generations framework that integrates trade-offs between the number of children (quantity) and investment per child (quality), a rich...

This paper examines the effect of national income on the total fertility rate (children born per woman). We estimate the effects on fertility of shocks to national per capita income using plausibly exogenous variations in oil price shock as an instrument for income and using instrumental...

This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Norway at the individual level. Studies using data at the macro level have found a positive short-term effect of the pandemic on fertility level in Norway, but women's fertility response to the pandemic may differ depending...

The report investigates how COVID-19 and other shocks have impacted child well-being across the region and the potential role of cash transfers and external resources to help children and economies. Drawing on more than 35 databases and a variety of modelling exercises, it presents the...