We investigate under which conditions a single simulation of joint default times at a final time horizon can be … facts, practical demands, and mathematical tractability, we propose models leading to a Markovian multi-variate survival … -- indicator process, and we investigate two instances of static models for the vector of default times from the statistical …

. Because of methodological limitations and data availability the indicators are based on simulation exercises that take into …

probability distribution of forecasting errors are needed in order to draw confidence bands around point forecasts. This paper … the uncertainty around the model’s parameters and the structural errors term to construct asymmetric confidence bands … the OECD Indicator Model for Germany. The empirical probability distributions of the GDP growth forecasts, derived through …