In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variables, some forecasters will perform better than others. However, it is possible that these ex post differences reflect sampling variation and thus overstate the ex ante differences between forecasters. In this paper, we present a simple...

The Irish economy's recovery from the global financial crisis (GFC) has been striking with both economic output and the labour market registering significant increases in activity since 2013. This resurgence in performance followed the sharp decline witnessed in the economy during the period...

A reason for revising the EU fiscal rules in the early 2010s was to improve member states' forecasts against a background of documented biases in official projections. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented which...

Blanchard and Leigh (2013, 2014) find fiscal multipliers to be underestimated in the EU in the deep recession of the early 2010s. Using two 2013-2018 datasets for 26 EU member states, assembled from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, we show that...

The Irish economy's recovery from the global financial crisis (GFC) has been striking with both economic output and the labour market registering significant increases in activity since 2013. This resurgence in performance followed the sharp decline witnessed in the economy during the period...