The most recent BIS triennial survey shows that turnover in foreign exchange markets increased by more than 70% over the three years to April 2007. Two specific findings stand out. First, the growth in transactions between banks and other financial institutions was particularly strong,...

With global recovery not in sight, along with calls for stronger structural reform, international policy coordination is again under spotlight. Correcting global imbalance would contribute towards closing the demand gap. Emerging economies in particular should allow greater exchange rate...

We describe a novel currency investment strategy, the `dollar carry trade,' which delivers large excess returns, uncorrelated with the returns on well-known carry trade strategies. Using a no-arbitrage model of exchange rates we show that these excess returns compensate U.S. investors for taking...

Climate change poses an existential threat to the global economy. While there is a growing body of literature on the economic consequences of climate change, research on the link between climate change and sovereign default risk is nonexistent. We aim to fill this gap in the literature by...

This study investigates the joint explanation and impact of economic growth, equity market performance and economic growth uncertainty on foreign participation (using net inflows from equity securities held by foreign investors as a proxy) in local equity market. Based on the analysis of...

This study investigates the impact of economic growth risk on stock market performance in 70 countries. Based on the analysis of the full sample, on average, 1% increase in economic growth risk is associated with 0.23% (p = 0.058) increase in stock market return. Looking at stock market return...

To understand macroeconomic risks underlying currency carry trades, I propose exploiting rich source of information from analysts’ economic growth forecasts. Specifically, I obtain measures of global growth prospects from the cross-analyst distribution of real GDP growth forecasts. I find that...

Kazakhstan possesses extensive natural resources and relies heavily on revenues from the export of primary commodities, in particular petroleum and natural gas. Kazakhstan's dependence on revenues from the oil sector raises the possibility that the economy is vulnerable to external commodity...