A special safeguard mechanism is an attractive policy tool for low-income importing countries because it is automatic and does not require an injury test. Exporters might accept a safeguard for low-income countries if it results in larger tariff cuts than in its absence. The effects of a special...

Skeptics see long-range geopolitical forecasting as quixotic. A more nuanced view is that although predictability tends to decline over time, its rate of descent is variable. The current study gives geopolitical forecasters a sporting chance by focusing on slow-motion variables with low base...