Since the XIX century, technological progress has allowed commercial banks to create ever greater amounts of broad money and credit starting from a unit of monetary base. Crucially, however, at the very low frequencies the relative amounts of the two aggregates created out of a unit of base...

I use Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility to forecast global temperatures and sea level and ice cover in the Northerin emisphere until 2010, by exploiting (i) their long-run equilibrium relationship with climate change drivers (CCDs) and (ii) the relationship between world GDP and...

I use Bayesian VARs to forecast global temperatures anomalies until the end of the XXI century by exploiting their cointegration with the Joint Radiative Forcing (JRF) of the drivers of climate change. Under a ‘no change’ scenario, the most favorable median forecast predicts the land...

We explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a dataset comprising 31 countries since 1851. In many cases cointegration tests identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between either velocity and the short rate, or M1, GDP, and the short rate. Evidence is especially strong for the United...

We explore the long-run demand for M1 based on a dataset comprising 31 countries since 1851. In many cases cointegration tests identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between either velocity and the short rate, or M1, GDP, and the short rate. Evidence is especially strong for the United...