We update our annual analysis of expected returns for 38 equity markets around the world. For the first time since we started our series in 2012, we find most emerging markets now exhibit higher expected returns than developed markets. In particular the expected returns for the core European...

We update our annual analysis of expected returns for 38 equity markets around the world. Based on current CAPE valuations, we expect mid to high single-digit yearly returns in most developed equity markets. However, risks are elevated for some markets. We specifically investigate drawdown risk...

Chapter 9 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments focuses on one of the most pressing global challenges for politics and humankind alike: climate change. Climate change is already triggering more intense and more frequent extreme weather events—cyclones,...

We update our analysis of expected returns for equity markets around the world. Based on the current Shiller-PE ratios of 38 developed and emerging equity markets around the world, our findings indicate that expected real returns are still positive for the coming five to ten years. European...

Chapter 8 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments focuses on an emerging form of resource competition. As renewable energy is becoming an increasingly important part of our energy supply, access to the minerals used in batteries and solar cells, as well as...

Chapter 7 of Geo-Economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments focuses on globally connected economies, the economic damage caused by successful cyber attacks, and the potential impact of a large-scale cyber attack. Could a successful cyber attack cause a prolonged...

Today’s investors need to understand geopolitical trends as a main driving force of markets. This book provides just that: an understanding of the interplay between geopolitics and economics, and of the impact of that dynamic on financial markets.To me, geo-economics is the study of how...

As geopolitical factors increasingly influence markets, investors need to gauge the impact on investments. Most experts consider political risks unquantifiable, but this publication shows how such risks can be quantified and used for risk management

Chapter 2 of Geo-economics: The Interplay between Geopolitics, Economics, and Investments examines the types of events that probably first come to mind when we talk about geopolitics: wars and international conflict. Unfortunately, in many cases, wars do not really matter all that much for...