This paper studies commodity price cycles and their underlying drivers using a dynamic factor model. The study employs a sample of 39 monthly commodity prices over 1970:01 to 2019:12. The analysis identifies global and group-specific cycles in commodity markets and includes them in a structural...

This study utilizes a frequency domain approach to decompose the prices of 21 primary commodities into transitory, supercycle, and permanent components from 1900 to 2022. The results reveal the presence of four heterogenous supercycles, with an average duration of 25 years, contributing little...

The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices in March 2020. This paper examines the likely implications of the 2020 oil price plunge...

Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption of metals, and two-thirds of the increase in energy consumption over this period. As...

This paper presents estimates of time-varying income elasticities of demand for energy and metal commodities. The analysis finds that the elasticities are close to unity, evaluated at world median per capita income levels. Furthermore, the estimates confirm that as income rises, demand growth...

Following the 2007-2009 global recession, economic policy uncertainty and its effect on economic recovery has become an issue of interest in academic, media as well as policy-making circles (Baker et al., 2013). Given this backdrop, we investigate causality between economic policy uncertainty in...