is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual … forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution. …

forecast accuracy: Mean Squared Prediction Error and Mean Directional Accuracy. We also show that the first principal component …

, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast … major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES …, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase of forecast accuracy in more than 50% of …

, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast … major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES …, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase of forecast accuracy in more than 50% of …

that the shape of the loss function varies across countries. The loss function becomes more asymmetric as the forecast …

reported" income statements. These changes lead to a decrease in the absolute forecast errors of analysts for both rising and …