Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth...

Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth...

A simulated portfolio deliberately based on stale price data — a Rip Van Winkle index fund — has both substantially higher performance and lower volatility than a portfolio that uses up-to-date cap weights. This holds true over the past 67 years in the United States and over shorter...

Deficits, levels of debt, and demographics are deeply interrelated. Demographics have a major impact on GDP growth as well as on investment returns. The long-term headwind that can be expected in the 21st century compared with the demographic dividend (i.e., tailwind) of the 20th century has...