A risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median of the...

The hypothesis that economic freedom and related variables are significant determinants of real per capita income and growth is critically evaluated. Economic freedom is found necessary for higher levels of per capita income and growth largely in terms of threshold effects as opposed to...

During times of market turmoil, investors often seek to mitigate the risk associated with traditional investment assets such as equities and debt. The hedging, safe-haven and downside risk reduction properties of gold are examined in this paper for investors with short- and long-run horizons....

There is increasing demand for models of time-varying and non-Gaussian dependencies for multivariate time-series. Available models suffer from the curse of dimensionality or restrictive assumptions on the parameters and the distribution. A promising class of models are the hierarchical...

Volatility is widely considered to be a category of technical indicators with a simple interpretation - no matter how it is measured volatility is widely believed to rise in a market downturn. This approach is applied to indicators such as the Average True Range (ATR), Bollinger Bands®...

Knowledge of the carbon emissions elasticities of income and population is important both for climate change policy/negotiations and for generating projections of carbon emissions. However, previous estimations of these elasticities using the well-known STIRPAT framework have produced such...

This paper presents new approach to financial modeling and forecasting that is based on economic space notion. Economic space is defined as generalization of risk ratings and allows boost methods and description of financial processes. Risk ratings of economic agents are treated as coordinates...

This paper documents the theoretical structure and empirical properties of the latestversion of the Global Macrofinancial Model (GFM). This dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies,was developed to support multilaterally...

In this paper we analyze the impact of hosting the FIFA Soccer World Cup on GDP per capita in a worldwide sample of countries using a transparent statistical methodology for data-driven case studies – the synthetic control method. Using country level annual-data covering all events occurring...