A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuanAt first glance, the modern history of the global economic system seems to support the long-held view that the leading world power's currency-the British pound, the U.S. dollar, and perhaps someday the...

We assess the role of economic and security considerations in the currency composition of international reserves. We contrast the “Mercury hypothesis” that currency choice is governed by pecuniary factors familiar to the literature, such as economic size and credibility of major reserve...

We investigate whether the role of national currencies as international reserves was fundamentally altered by the shift from fixed to flexible exchange rates (what we call the "upheaval hypothesis"), a view that gained adherents following the collapse of the Bretton Woods System. We extend...

A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuanAt first glance, the modern history of the global economic system seems to support the long-held view that the leading world power’s currency—the British pound, the U.S. dollar, and perhaps someday...

We analyze the role of economic and security considerations in bilateral trade agreements. We use the pre-World War I period to test whether trade agreements are governed by pecuniary factors, such as distance and other frictions measured by gravity covariates, or by geopolitical factors. While...

This paper offers new evidence on the emergence of the dollar as the leading international currency, focusing on its role as currency of denomination in global bond markets. We show that the dollar overtook sterling much earlier than commonly supposed, as early as in 1929. Financial market...

This paper offers new evidence on the emergence of the dollar as the leading international currency, focusing on its role as currency of denomination in global bond markets. We show that the dollar overtook sterling much earlier than commonly supposed, as early as in 1929. Financial market...