We estimate three different models of speculative behaviour using oil price data. There are two major results: (i) The three-regime model of Brooks and Katsaris (2005) and a three-regime variant of van Norden and Schaller (2002) fit the oil price data reasonably well; and (ii) Both models show...

In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of gold as a hedging and safe haven instrument for a variety of market risks. Rather than confining the analysis to specific countries, we treat gold as a global asset and apply the novel Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b) methodology to identify extreme...

It is commonly understood that macroeconomic shocks influence commodity prices and that one channel for this is the link between interest rates, expected future asset returns and stockholding. In this paper the link is extended to the petroleum market with the recognition that recorded stocks of...