This study examines the role of daily volatility persistence in transmitting information from macro-economy in the volatility of energy markets. In crude oil and natural gas markets, macro-economic factors, such as the VIX, the credit spread and the Baltic exchange dirty index, impact...

This paper analyzes conditional threshold effects of stock market volatility on crude oil market volatility. We use the conditional threshold autoregressive (CoTAR) model, a novel extension of TAR from a constant to time-varying threshold. The conditional threshold is specified as an empirical...

We conduct an out-of-sample backtesting exercise of Growth-at-Risk (GaR) predictions for 24 OECD countries. We consider forecasts constructed from quantile regression and GARCH models. The quantile regression forecasts are based on a set of recently proposed measures of downside risks to GDP,...