This study develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to account for the differences in fiscal policy stance over the business cycle between developed and emerging market countries, and, in particular, for the volatile and procyclical government consumption and transfer payment in...

For over two years, the world has been battling the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides an account of the worldwide economic impact of the COVID-19 shock, measured by GDP growth, employment, government spending, monetary policy, and trade. We find that...

his essay places the first blueprint for the Intellectual Property Currency (IPC) funding that the International Central Bank for Intellectual Properties (ICB/IP) would issue to finance the implementation of intellectual capital and the generation of the next one. The blueprint formulates the...

This paper investigates currency and financial crises in an optimizing general equilibrium model. It is shown that a rise in current and expected future budget deficits generates a real exchange rate appreciation and a decumulation of external assets, leading up to a currency crisis when foreign...

We analyze the effects of world wars on the macroeconomic dynamics of the U.S., France, Germany, and the UK, by means of an estimated open-economy model. The model allows wars to affect the economy through capital depreciation, sovereign default, a military draft, household preferences, and...

Fiscal procyclicality, meaning co-movement between government expenditure and macroeconomic fundamentals, is an important feature of business cycle dynamics for emerging and poor economies. I estimate a panel SVAR to investigate the reasons for fiscal procyclicality. The analysis sheds light on...

We estimate the effects of temperature anomalies – temperature’s deviation from its long-run mean – on sovereign default risk and explore the transmission channels. We use cross-country panel data covering 76 countries over the period 1999-2017. Our results suggest that an increase of...

This paper studies the effectiveness of Euro Area (EA) fiscal policy, during the recent financial crisis, using an estimated New Keynesian model with a bank. A key dimension of policy in the crisis was massive government support for banks — that dimension has so far received little attention...

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...

Using foreign currency long-term sovereign rating data from 93 countries and for more than 30 years, panel data econometric analyses show non-monotonic relation between pro-cyclicality of government consumption and sovereign risk scores. That is, countries with limited access to foreign credits...