We demonstrate how a machine learning algorithm can be applied to predict and explain modern market microstructure phenomena. We investigate the efficacy of various microstructure measures and show that they continue to provide insights into price dynamics in current complex markets. Some...

Order flow is toxic when it adversely selects market makers, who may be unaware they are providing liquidity at a loss. We present a new procedure to estimate flow toxicity based on volume imbalance and trade intensity (the VPIN toxicity metric). VPIN is updated in volume-time, making it...

Order flow toxicity is a measure of a trader's exposure to the risk that counter-parties possess private information or other informational advantages. High levels of order flow toxicity can culminate in market makers providing liquidity at a loss or in suboptimal execution of trades. From a...

The theoretical relationship between informational efficiency and efficiency in the assignment is reviewed in this document. Two improvements are proposed with respect to the traditional empirical methodology that is currently used to test market efficiency in the weak form. The first one is to...

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of oil price, US Dollar rate and VIX on Borsa Istanbul by employing quantile regression model. In the literature, there are studies that examine the effect of the mentioned factors on stock market, but the number of studies in which these...

In this paper, we investigate how climate risk impacts the sovereign risk, the stock market evolution, and the degree of competitiveness, starting from the macroeconomic and financial effects globally produced by climate change. Using both quantile and logistic regression and a sample of 22...

This project shows the algorithm appropriate for short term trading strategies and techniques to leverage these strategies. The Durbin Watson statistic shows market inefficiency. Non-parametric models are used. The returns are not correlated but they show some amount of volatility clusterization...

Speculative economic, financial, and cryptocurrency bubbles are not arcane anymore; nonetheless, they are still misunderstood. For this exact reason, they continue to form even centuries after the famous first speculative bubbles of 17th and 18th centuries. Bubbles do not form instantaneously;...

Suppose there is Bitcoin nation and its currency bitcoin; with market capitalization of $1.086 trillion on 21 February 2021, Bitcoin’s market value (17th among G20) has surpassed GDPs of Netherlands ($909 billion), Saudi Arabia ($793 billion), Turkey ($754 billion), and Switzerland ($703...

This Policy Analysis explains the antecedents of the current global financial crisis and critically examines the reasoning behind the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve's actions to prop up the financial sector. It argues that recovery from the financial crisis is likely to be slow with or...