This paper analyzes global commodity trends and concludes that the marked decline in real commodity prices of the past decade should be regarded as largely permanent and irreversible. The authors contend that the analysis of commodity prices should be extended to include the role of the...

The debate on government debt in the context of possible reforms of the international financial architecture has thus far focused on crisis resolution. This paper seeks to broaden this debate. It asks how government debt could be structured to pursue other objectives, including crisis...

This paper seeks to revive the case for countries to self-insure against economic growth slowdowns by issuing GDP-indexed bonds. We simulate the effects of GDP-indexed bonds under different assumptions about fiscal policy reaction functions and their output effects and find that they could...

The effect of the exchange rate regime on inflation and growth is examined. The 30-year data set includes over 100 countries and nine regime types. Pegged regimes are associated with lower inflation than intermediate or flexible regimes. This anti-inflationary benefit reflects lower money supply...

We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define ""growth spells:"" periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample. Growth spells tend to be shorter in African and Latin American countries...

This paper explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period Januar 1996 to March 1999. An examination of individual crises shows that, on average, funds withdrew money one month prior to the events. The degree...