In assessing drivers of commodity prices and volatility at this stage of the current super-cycle in commodities (year 12 of a projected 25), it is vital to understand that production cost is a fundamental. Moreover, marginal production costs are among the most powerful drivers of commodity...

This paper is devoted to the pricing of variance and volatility swaps in energy market. We found explicit variance swap formula and closed form volatility swap formula (using Brockhaus-Long approximation) for energy asset with stochastic volatility that follows continuous-time GARCH (1,1) model...

We investigate for the first time the spot rate dynamics for Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) by means of multrifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and rescaled range (R/S) analysis. Both methods allow for a rigorous statistical analysis of the freight process by detecting...

Over the past few decades, it has become increasingly common for terrorists to frame their objectives in religious terms and organize their activities within religious movements. This paper extends previous models of religious extremism to better account for observed patterns of extremism and...

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a constant threat in 2022 and is important to design appropriate vaccination campaigns to face next pandemic impacts driven by new variants. This study develops a Machine Learning experiment that shows, between countries, a rapid reduction...

Objectives: We study partial unlock or reopening interaction with seasonal effects in a managed epidemic to quantify overshoot effects on small and large unlock steps and discover robust strategies for reducing overshoot. Methods: We simulate partial unlock of social distancing for epidemics...

The purpose of this research is to fill the gaps in the literature by providing a comprehensive study on how to utilize and improve the performance of the receding horizontal control and stochastic programming (RHCSP) method pertaining to the oil and currency markets

We develop models for portfolio diversification in the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) markets and show that, despite literature findings that sovereign CDS spreads are affected by global factors, there is sufficient idiosyncratic risk to be diversified away. However, we identify regime...