Most existing studies of the macroeconomic effects of global shocks assume that they are mediated by a single intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple...

We present and describe a new dataset of capital control restrictions on both inflows and outflows of ten categories of assets for 100 countries over the period 1995 to 2013. Building on the data first presented in Martin Schindler (2009), and other datasets based on the analysis of the IMF's...

A growing recent theoretical literature advocates the use of prudential capital control policy, that is, the tightening of restrictions on cross-border capital flows during booms and the relaxation thereof during recessions. We examine the behavior of capital controls in a large number of...

This paper investigates empirically the role of the commodity price super cycle in explaining real activity in developed and emerging economies. The commodity price super cycle is defined as a common permanent component in real commodity prices. Estimates using quarterly and annual data from...

The demographic transition --the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime-- is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death...

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and various countries and regions to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and...

We examine the rise of dark shipping - oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection - amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect...

After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying...

The authors study the impact that the liquidity crunch in 2008-2009 had on the U.S. economy's growth trend. To this end, the authors propose a model featuring endogenous productivity a la Romer and a liquidity friction a la Kiyotaki-Moore. A key finding in the authors' study is that liquidity...

We study the impact that the liquidity crunch in 2008-2009 had on the U.S. economy's growth trend. To this end, we propose a model featuring endogenous growth á la Romer and a liquidity friction á la Kiyotaki-Moore. A key finding in our study is that liquidity declined around the demise of...