We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around...

We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around...

Using a new survey data set of matched exchange rate and interest rate expectations for eight currencies relative to the German mark, we examine empirically the relationship between exchange rate returns, "news" and risk premia. "News" on interest differentials enters significantly in equations...

In this paper we investigate purchasing power parity (PPP) in a panel with 17 countries for the period 1972 through 1996. The novel feature of our panel methodology is that results are invariant to the choice of a benchmark on numeraire currency. In the panel we allow individual country effects...

We study the trading performance of actively-managed mutual funds from 16 domicile countries investing in 42 equity markets over the period 2001-2014. In the aggregate, funds achieve particularly poor returns in U.S. equity: after adjusting for style, the stocks they buy underperform those they...