History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting attention to crashes that followed a large increase in...

"[A] magnificent history of money and finance."--New York Times Book Review“Convincingly makes the case that finance is a change-maker of change-makers.”--Financial TimesIn the aftermath of recent financial crises, it's easy to see finance as a wrecking ball: something that destroys fortunes...

From a broad macro-financial structure perspective, credit conditions have gaven rise to house price booms and busts in several advanced economies (e.g., Ireland, Spain, and the U.S.), and, more specifically in the U.S., an underpricing of risk made possible by regulatory arbitrage and shadow...

This article describes the causes of the boom and bust in the U.S. housing market, which brought down not just the U.S. financial system but the global economy. How did this vicious cycle begin? How did home prices appreciate so far and so fast? Why did rational investors not recognize and stop...