We empirically test Gabaix and Maggiori (2015)’s prediction that currencies are repriced by the country’s external capital dependence when financial constraints of FX intermediaries change. Using solvency indicators, we develop a novel intermediary constraints index capturing riskbearing...

MNB has received daily, transaction-level data on key Hungarian interest rate derivatives markets since the beginning of 2009 with the launching of the K14 report. The dataset that has accumulated since early 2009 provides an opportunity to better comprehend the structure and functioning of...

In this paper, we investigate the "static and dynamic" return and volatility spillovers’ transmission across developed and developing countries. Quoted against the US dollar, we study twenty-three global currencies over the time period 2005-2016. Focusing on the spillover index methodology,...

Using a broad data set of 20 US dollar exchange rates and order flow of institutional investors over 14 years, we construct a measure of global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Our FX liquidity measure may be seen as the analogue of the well-known Pastor-Stambaugh liquidity...

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...

This paper finds that currency carry trade, which is borrowing money from a low interest rate country and lending it into a high interest rate country, can generate high excess profits and high alpha in both developed and emerging markets. The profit from G-10 country carry trade is mainly...

The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate...

This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast ExchangeMarket Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual internationalcapital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation istheory-based,...

This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast exchange market pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is...