The exceptional rise in government deficits following the subprime crisis, the recent commodity price spikes and the increase in inflation volatility have revived the debate on medium to long-term resurgence of inflation. Using a vector-autoregressive model, this paper investigates the...

This paper addresses management of sovereign wealth from the perspective of the theory of contingent claims. Starting with the sovereign's balance sheet, we frame sovereign fund management as an asset-liability management (ALM) problem, covering all public entities and taking explicit account of...

This paper sets out a new approach to sovereign wealth and risk management, based on the theory of contingent claim analysis (CCA). To manage sovereign risk, it is essential to analyse the sovereign's balance sheet. The state has to solve an asset-liability management (ALM) problem between its...

Does financial globalization lead to contagion? We scrutinize linkages between international stock markets in a long historical perspective (1880-2014). Our results highlight that without globalization, contagion cannot exist. However, if cross-market correlations are very high, globalization...

This paper sets out an analytical framework for optimal asset allocation of sovereign wealth, based on the theory of contingent claims analysis applied to the sovereigns economic balance sheet. A country solves an asset-liability management problem involving its sources of income and its...

This paper compares the performance of various diversification strategies regarding foreign exchange reserves. The aim is to provide central banks with guidelines in portfolio allocation. We pay particular attention to the situation of upward pressures on U.S. interest rates by implementing our...

The benchmarks of a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) should take into account the economic and political context behind the creation of the SWF and the role the SWF plays as one part of a government's overall policy. The first benchmark of legitimacy ensures that the capital of the SWF is not...

The ability of hedge fund investors to exit a fund by exchanging ownership for cash at the prevailing NAV is often blocked by lockups and notice periods. We model the exit decision as a real option and incorporate lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. We compute the cost of these...