Given the economy's complex behavior and sudden transitions as evidenced in the 2007-08 crisis, agent-based models are widely considered a promising alternative to current macroeconomic practice dominated by DSGE models. Their failure is commonly interpreted as a failure to incorporate...

The total output of an economy usually follows cyclical movements which are accompanied by similar movements in stock prices. The common explanation relies on the demand side. It points out that stock market wealth drives consumption which triggers production afterwards. This paper focuses on...

This paper is devoted to the pricing of variance and volatility swaps in energy market. We found explicit variance swap formula and closed form volatility swap formula (using Brockhaus-Long approximation) for energy asset with stochastic volatility that follows continuous-time GARCH (1,1) model...

We investigate for the first time the spot rate dynamics for Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) by means of multrifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and rescaled range (R/S) analysis. Both methods allow for a rigorous statistical analysis of the freight process by detecting...

Over the past few decades, it has become increasingly common for terrorists to frame their objectives in religious terms and organize their activities within religious movements. This paper extends previous models of religious extremism to better account for observed patterns of extremism and...

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a constant threat in 2022 and is important to design appropriate vaccination campaigns to face next pandemic impacts driven by new variants. This study develops a Machine Learning experiment that shows, between countries, a rapid reduction...

Objectives: We study partial unlock or reopening interaction with seasonal effects in a managed epidemic to quantify overshoot effects on small and large unlock steps and discover robust strategies for reducing overshoot. Methods: We simulate partial unlock of social distancing for epidemics...