We define decoupling as an increase in the cross-country heterogeneity in long-term growth expectations. We identify growth expectations from a cointegrating relation between a country's output level and its stock market valuation. Fluctuations in this output-price or yp-ratio reflect changes in...

More than seventy percent of China's outward direct investment (ODI), according to the Ministry of Commerce statistics, is invested in Hong Kong, the British Virgin Islands, and the Cayman Islands. Using a unique micro-level dataset collected by the Heritage Foundation that documents individual...

I study the short- and long-term effects of trade agreements with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions on innovation, growth and welfare. I develop a quantitative multi-country trade model with endogenous productivity through innovation and adoption that features imperfect IP rights...

We derive a theory-based gravity-type equation that determines the main drivers of international technology diffusion under perfect enforcement of intellectual property rights. We estimate the gravity equation using bilateral royalty payments data for a sample of 53 countries and the period...

The recent surge in inflation in many countries around the world and the fiscal stimulus provided in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has renewed interest in analyzing the potential role of large fiscal spending as a driver of price increases. In this note, we examine how fiscal support...

I study the short- and long-term effects of regional trade agreements (RTA) with strict intellectual property (IP) provisions. An empirical analysis using gravity methods suggests that regions signing these agreements share more technology in the form of technology licensing following the year...

We provide a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, innovation, and knowledge diffusion. We study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by...