What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The...

The ability to explain the development of supply, demand, and prices of commodities (especially agricultural and energy commodities) is essential for policy-makers around the globe for several reasons since they represent an essential part of the consumption baskets. Moreover, energy and...